Bauhinia’s move to infer Dragon’s way to go (reproduced to A-Desi Flava magazine Oct issue)

If we use Genghis Khan’s (1162-1227) expedition as our division in human history, the period preceded was unarguably the one with oriental wisdom excelled the west. In a time-frame of half century, Mongolian had absorbed the scientific discoveries from China and utilized nomadic tribes’ mobilization superiority to extend their control to major territory with civilization. Had their generals put aside selfish contests on emperor succession, they would have continued the attack to seize Germany and Russia under their ruling. Thereafter Europe had step into the darkest era for centuries.  The East continued to intoxicate with historical success and preserved its ancient characteristics with limited breakthrough in social aspects. The phenomenon had been kept status quo in Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties. When West and East met again, many humiliated treaties were signed by the Qing (1644 – 1912) government as the aftermath of military defects. Notwithstanding the West had ever been suppressed by the Great Khan in the trough, they rebounded in coming centuries and become the leaders in nowadays’ era.  Prosperity and decline never last.  When China joined WTO in 2001, mainstream opinions predicted the sleepy dragon was to regain consciousness. Therefore, a switch on stage between protagonist and minor actor is going to take place again whereas China will dominate the world in this millennium.  Perhaps this proposition requires our descendant to verify. We take this opportune moment, which the National Day celebration is due to hold in October, to have some insights on China’s economic development.

Society Transformation and Modernization

Ancient China had adopted farming as a means to earn a living even though dynasties changeover occurs.  In comparing with other countries younger in ages, society transformation is a brand-new topic to the veteran and the Chinese government had encountered this problem only in recent decades.  Having more experiences, Hong Kong people could tell that society evolves on the track like this way. It starts off from agriculture or fishing. With incentive driven, it transforms into industrial one to look for higher reward and subsequently it uplifts into tertiary or services orientated one.  It is just a simplified discourse. Indeed, the migration involved countless problems sometimes sophisticated economic analysis is still hard to account for its irregularities.   We know the trend move in this manner, it is uncertain still if all candidates could go through the three stages. National leaders are all cleverer than I am. Of course, they should base on their countries’ merits to pave the suitable path and system to pursue. Some countries, such as Indonesia or Malaysia, simply utilized the cheap labor without touching the political reform noticed a satisfactory beginning in factory production and exports. Later, they find difficulties to complete the three stages and problems had been arisen from inherent political system. Some countries adopted a unique political-cum-military system to try to go through the stages by using nationalism as catalyst. But Mikado and Adolf Hitler ultimately brought disaster to their citizens.  You may note that the heroic explorer Christopher Columbus arrived Brazil and America nearly at the same time, yet, the national standing between Brazil and US is prominent. Part of the reasons behind, the former was later colonized by Catholic Spaniard and the latter was basically a descendent of Britain.  We widen our vision to worldwide. Countries or political systems manage to go through the transformation are UK, US, Canada, Australia, HK, Singapore, a few European Countries and Japan.  The interesting point you could spot is majority of them were British colonies and favor Capitalism as the living mode.  Is it just a coincidence?  UK forged an emperor on which sun never sets. Queen Victoria’s fame can be compared to Genghis Khan’s intimidation. But muscular Khan focused little about humanitarian improvement enjoyed barbaric slaughter and hunting.  It is not my purpose to exaggerate Caucasian’s strength. In fact, the Anglo-Saxon culture nurtured in the aforesaid regions should alert national leaders’ attention. Some essential elements advocated by this culture have now been regarded as universal values in modernized societies. To achieve modernization, don’t’ overlook the successful factors and prerequisite.

Hong Kong’s living way is hard to come by

Another interesting point deserved readers to deliberate: Are the virtues of Capitalism and Anglo-Saxon cultures derived from an overnight event? We herein revisited the Europe history. When the European lived in the trough, they started to review and to strive for revival.  Their people began to challenge the religious cangue and lock. So, Renaissance (14^th -17^th centuries) ignited the sparkle to overturn the absolute religious believes. Prior to this revolution in cognition, European would have been sentenced to death if someone queried the cubic shape of the earth.  Glorious Revolution (1688) in England further injected a new concept which is balance of powers. The divine right of monarchy was subject to challenge and undermined. Many new concepts such as rule of laws, human rights, freedom of speech and private ownership subsequently emerged. This period which tides of new mentality and thinkers appeared was known as the Age of Enlightenment. Before so, people living in feudalistic society only knew they were subordinated to aristocratic classes and be obedient to supervision. In their mind, all matters associated with daily life were their responsibilities, i.e. levy, labor and loyalty to rulers, but had no idea what their rights were. Senior Hong Kongers must recall there was a series of riots and explosions in 1967.  The pressurized factory workers felt annoyed to the reality and their grievance were provoked by some minor matters.  Hong Kong government then had subsequently introduced measures and reforms to address to the unrest. History tells that conflicts and bloodshed are typical in society evolvement and modernization. Exactly, it is a test on government’s ability to cope with changes. If an appropriate medication applies to the diseases, body recovers swiftly and tends to be stronger with immunity acquired. On the other hand, reckless use of pain relievers hides the symptom fast. Patient resumes perfect upon discharge but will die of sudden outburst in days ahead.

Good matches not count on good players but good rules

Our President Xi Jinping likes football the same as I do. I hope he will have the same apprehension as mine too; Football is not merely a kind of sport. Its captivating magic has encompassed the wisdom to apply in country governance.  Terrific football matches required quality players, managers, cooperation and strategy.  Nevertheless, the most neglected point is that it relied on a clear game of rule as the foundation! Football industry shall never emerge until game of rules consolidated. The disappearance of this cornerstone is the hint to the forthcoming destruction of stadium. If the game of rule is ambiguous and changeable according to referee’s mood, player’s frustration and audience’s disgruntlement must be widespread.  Matches’ appreciation levels surely deteriorate to drain audience off.  Sooner or later, it ruins everyone’s interest on football and the entire industry dwarfed. With a mature framework, players can exercise their utmost dribbling as long as there is no foul. With this example applicable to modern society, Democracy and Capitalist society may have many weaknesses and areas to improve. At least, you understand the clear game of rule in the society. You can exercise your talent without persistent worry about the yardstick to judge matters and improper behaviors would be penalized by a transparent procedure. It propels creative inventors to think about new ideas in scientific dimension and business to provide betterment in living. Once an optimal environment forms, magic and miracle automatically duplicates. This is why you see numerous iconic names, such as James Watt, Henry Ford and Thomas Edison, sprang up in Western countries’ industrialization.  People only contemplate on the results but forget to study the cause. The modernization and prosperity in Hong Kong is indeed a crystallization of generations’ struggle and evolvement.

Hong Kong matters decide China’s future

In the past decade, China has undoubtedly uplifted its living standard by means of export and industrialization.  At the same time, readers should also familiar with the ideology advocated by Communist Party of China is “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. It has absorbed several characteristics of Capitalism to become the Social Market Economy we seen.  When we apprehend in detail, it still has a huge meaningful difference to Capitalism, not to mention the adoption of its spirit. Recently, many economists already express the grave concern on China’s attainment of “Lewis Turning Point”. In this bottleneck, cheap labor is hard to sustain China’s economic development. Concurrently, China is dogged by series of chronic problems about inflation, social unrest, unjustified procedure, corruption and pollution.  Ironically, this vast agricultural country once let Macro Polo admired is now facing food problems. They are not worrying about the scarcity of food. Worst still, their supermarket is stuffed with abundant of local stock but the mainlanders perceived them as poison. Fettered by merchant-official collusion and imperfection in judicial system, complainants cannot receive the proper treatments they deserved. At present, tens of thousands regional victims are staying at Beijing to seek chances for appeal. This year is the first year of President Xi’s reign. Instead of reiterating vague and impracticable pledge, people are deeply awaited for an overhaul. Frankly speaking, it is unprecedented to see a country with 1.3 billion populations to step into the industrialization. Mr Xi and his processors are fulfilling a mission impossible task. Nevertheless, people generally conceive mainlander’s philosophy is fabricating one matter to cover another until the third one unearth.  Due to the gravity on international platform, the suffocation or coughing of this dragon will affect every corner of the world. We herein expect Mr. Xi could offer a long-sought for drug to eradicate the chronic problems to sustain the growth. One of the indications to signify the next move on Mr.Xi’s chessboard is his directive on Hong Kong matters. The place we are working and living have countless intangible differences to cities under Communist Party’s purview. If our leaders consider the experiences in Hong Kong noteworthy and quotable in social modernization, degree of compromise could be sensed in dealing with Hong Kong’s opposite voice and dissidents. To the other extreme, protests and oppositions would all be suppressed should the hidden agenda in China is accelerating to assimilate Hong Kong without slight treasure of its capitalist heritage. In this regard, “Occupy the Central” and “Universal referendum” serves not only “Talk of the town” in Bauhinia city but also has a profound implication to human history.

買家消聲賣家匿跡，細看香港樓市新軌跡

政府推出樓市雙辣招後，近期的成交巳委縮到令老行尊都開始惶恐不安。坦言，在人為政策扭曲的情況下，真的不知要多久才可渡過冰河時期。但在眾多重招和銀行借款限制之下，不只整死抄家，連真正用家都無法行動。但有別於九七時十多厘的高原環境，現時環球利息之低，最起碼要多加兩三厘，大家才有箝緊褲頭的感覺。況且，過去十多年，金管局在借貸審核和中央紀錄上巳費盡心思，根本難有九七前月薪一萬供樓九千的勇猛現象。再加上，香港樓市並非在蟹貨區，亦難有以往因一兩件小事便骨牌下滑的危機。所以，政府表面善意調控樓市，最終的結果可能只是無成交式在高原牛皮，但小市民置業的夢想仍然遙遠。現今，特區政府民望巳跌破谷底。由特首選舉以至眾多措施，「CY陣營」都洗滌不去執行中央意思的指斥。如香港市民在這種時勢下仍捉錯用神，冀望樓市政策會快雨過天晴，可能只是痴心妄想。

港退中進

從現時樓市的境況和政策作買賣雙方正反思量，任何人皆知，基本上是對「買方」較為有利的。但一般人和公司都難做按揭的前提下，「買方」這詞巳不是泛指一般市民和小商家，而僅指有雄厚資金的大型機構。另一買賣雙方奕棋的商業學問是，如果「買家」倍於「賣家」，成交價多會以「賣方」有利，反之亦言。因而，現時政府造就的情況，儼如罷黜買家，把禾雀亂飛的市塲，收縮到指定買家和賣家一對一對峙的境況。潮起潮落，時代轉變，定有人遲官歸故里, 有人漏夜趕科場。八九十年代，香港華資漸次取代英資，成為地產市塲的主角。一瞬間，回歸巳十六週年，香港在各界別都隠感在大陸化。相對地，地產舞台的主角，亦多少輪到大陸背景的演員擔綱演出，至於是用什麼方法和模式作交棒，由於大陸和香港分屬於兩套不同社會體系和法制的地區，有別於八十年代，劇本和對白可能會完全不同。按形勢，現時華置和超人的公司，仍有一大堆法律訴訟要處理，祈求撤走辣招的朋友和業界，可能要待這些官司有眉目，或甚至看到「四大家族出售所有商塲給愛國基金」的報導，才會有放寬的可能。

明修棧道暗渡陳倉

另一值得香港人思索的問題是立法局下月復會後，政府定會把新界發展如期提案。群眾的反應，自然盯着發展局要員們的醜聞窮追不捨。他們的所作所為，巳有多份報章臚列過，在此不贅。但大家有否注意到，香港重要官員的任命，全經中央批准。而「屯地波」和麥局長交义租樓一事，以複雜性而言，根本就顯而易見，但他們都能通過背景審查。心水清的朋友亦可會反問，何解要讓自身問題多多的人，來領導對香港房屋有深遠影響的部門。他們出席任何塲合，定必變成粗口互罵的塲面，根本無法探討論香港房屋問題。有見及此，香港人必須對一國兩制有更深的理解。國家利益，並不等同香港人利益。香港人需視這班領導人為砒霜，以國家戰略國度，他們却是熊掌。那麼，他們可扮演什麼角色，可使中央政府萬般欣賞，難道他們是另一個張居正，想出香港新一條鞭法，並讓全中國參考?以筆者角度，他們的醜聞和人品，正是攫取中央歡心的地方。當大家未來數年都把重點放在喊打官員、被分散注意力下，一水之隔的前海巳高速發展，今年巳賣了兩幅土地。反之，香港人仍在注目高官醜聞，正反兩方互罵數年後，大家如夢初醒才驚覺，另一個由中國全權主管的香港巳完峻。那時，港人的聲音和意見更加不稍一顧。隨後，大型機構和經濟活動帶領人流遷入該區，自會平衡香港的居住問題。

因而，現屆政府的底蘊是真的有心調控和健康化樓市，或是又用戲法來聲東擊西，達到某些企圖，各人應用多角度作深入分析、自我判斷。