3D SKETCHUP ｆｏｒ ａｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔ

Bauhinia’s move to infer Dragon’s way to go (reproduced to A-Desi Flava magazine Oct issue)

If we use Genghis Khan’s (1162-1227) expedition as our division in human history, the period preceded was unarguably the one with oriental wisdom excelled the west. In a time-frame of half century, Mongolian had absorbed the scientific discoveries from China and utilized nomadic tribes’ mobilization superiority to extend their control to major territory with civilization. Had their generals put aside selfish contests on emperor succession, they would have continued the attack to seize Germany and Russia under their ruling. Thereafter Europe had step into the darkest era for centuries.  The East continued to intoxicate with historical success and preserved its ancient characteristics with limited breakthrough in social aspects. The phenomenon had been kept status quo in Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties. When West and East met again, many humiliated treaties were signed by the Qing (1644 – 1912) government as the aftermath of military defects. Notwithstanding the West had ever been suppressed by the Great Khan in the trough, they rebounded in coming centuries and become the leaders in nowadays’ era.  Prosperity and decline never last.  When China joined WTO in 2001, mainstream opinions predicted the sleepy dragon was to regain consciousness. Therefore, a switch on stage between protagonist and minor actor is going to take place again whereas China will dominate the world in this millennium.  Perhaps this proposition requires our descendant to verify. We take this opportune moment, which the National Day celebration is due to hold in October, to have some insights on China’s economic development.

Society Transformation and Modernization

Ancient China had adopted farming as a means to earn a living even though dynasties changeover occurs.  In comparing with other countries younger in ages, society transformation is a brand-new topic to the veteran and the Chinese government had encountered this problem only in recent decades.  Having more experiences, Hong Kong people could tell that society evolves on the track like this way. It starts off from agriculture or fishing. With incentive driven, it transforms into industrial one to look for higher reward and subsequently it uplifts into tertiary or services orientated one.  It is just a simplified discourse. Indeed, the migration involved countless problems sometimes sophisticated economic analysis is still hard to account for its irregularities.   We know the trend move in this manner, it is uncertain still if all candidates could go through the three stages. National leaders are all cleverer than I am. Of course, they should base on their countries’ merits to pave the suitable path and system to pursue. Some countries, such as Indonesia or Malaysia, simply utilized the cheap labor without touching the political reform noticed a satisfactory beginning in factory production and exports. Later, they find difficulties to complete the three stages and problems had been arisen from inherent political system. Some countries adopted a unique political-cum-military system to try to go through the stages by using nationalism as catalyst. But Mikado and Adolf Hitler ultimately brought disaster to their citizens.  You may note that the heroic explorer Christopher Columbus arrived Brazil and America nearly at the same time, yet, the national standing between Brazil and US is prominent. Part of the reasons behind, the former was later colonized by Catholic Spaniard and the latter was basically a descendent of Britain.  We widen our vision to worldwide. Countries or political systems manage to go through the transformation are UK, US, Canada, Australia, HK, Singapore, a few European Countries and Japan.  The interesting point you could spot is majority of them were British colonies and favor Capitalism as the living mode.  Is it just a coincidence?  UK forged an emperor on which sun never sets. Queen Victoria’s fame can be compared to Genghis Khan’s intimidation. But muscular Khan focused little about humanitarian improvement enjoyed barbaric slaughter and hunting.  It is not my purpose to exaggerate Caucasian’s strength. In fact, the Anglo-Saxon culture nurtured in the aforesaid regions should alert national leaders’ attention. Some essential elements advocated by this culture have now been regarded as universal values in modernized societies. To achieve modernization, don’t’ overlook the successful factors and prerequisite.

Hong Kong’s living way is hard to come by

Another interesting point deserved readers to deliberate: Are the virtues of Capitalism and Anglo-Saxon cultures derived from an overnight event? We herein revisited the Europe history. When the European lived in the trough, they started to review and to strive for revival.  Their people began to challenge the religious cangue and lock. So, Renaissance (14^th -17^th centuries) ignited the sparkle to overturn the absolute religious believes. Prior to this revolution in cognition, European would have been sentenced to death if someone queried the cubic shape of the earth.  Glorious Revolution (1688) in England further injected a new concept which is balance of powers. The divine right of monarchy was subject to challenge and undermined. Many new concepts such as rule of laws, human rights, freedom of speech and private ownership subsequently emerged. This period which tides of new mentality and thinkers appeared was known as the Age of Enlightenment. Before so, people living in feudalistic society only knew they were subordinated to aristocratic classes and be obedient to supervision. In their mind, all matters associated with daily life were their responsibilities, i.e. levy, labor and loyalty to rulers, but had no idea what their rights were. Senior Hong Kongers must recall there was a series of riots and explosions in 1967.  The pressurized factory workers felt annoyed to the reality and their grievance were provoked by some minor matters.  Hong Kong government then had subsequently introduced measures and reforms to address to the unrest. History tells that conflicts and bloodshed are typical in society evolvement and modernization. Exactly, it is a test on government’s ability to cope with changes. If an appropriate medication applies to the diseases, body recovers swiftly and tends to be stronger with immunity acquired. On the other hand, reckless use of pain relievers hides the symptom fast. Patient resumes perfect upon discharge but will die of sudden outburst in days ahead.

Good matches not count on good players but good rules

Our President Xi Jinping likes football the same as I do. I hope he will have the same apprehension as mine too; Football is not merely a kind of sport. Its captivating magic has encompassed the wisdom to apply in country governance.  Terrific football matches required quality players, managers, cooperation and strategy.  Nevertheless, the most neglected point is that it relied on a clear game of rule as the foundation! Football industry shall never emerge until game of rules consolidated. The disappearance of this cornerstone is the hint to the forthcoming destruction of stadium. If the game of rule is ambiguous and changeable according to referee’s mood, player’s frustration and audience’s disgruntlement must be widespread.  Matches’ appreciation levels surely deteriorate to drain audience off.  Sooner or later, it ruins everyone’s interest on football and the entire industry dwarfed. With a mature framework, players can exercise their utmost dribbling as long as there is no foul. With this example applicable to modern society, Democracy and Capitalist society may have many weaknesses and areas to improve. At least, you understand the clear game of rule in the society. You can exercise your talent without persistent worry about the yardstick to judge matters and improper behaviors would be penalized by a transparent procedure. It propels creative inventors to think about new ideas in scientific dimension and business to provide betterment in living. Once an optimal environment forms, magic and miracle automatically duplicates. This is why you see numerous iconic names, such as James Watt, Henry Ford and Thomas Edison, sprang up in Western countries’ industrialization.  People only contemplate on the results but forget to study the cause. The modernization and prosperity in Hong Kong is indeed a crystallization of generations’ struggle and evolvement.

Hong Kong matters decide China’s future

In the past decade, China has undoubtedly uplifted its living standard by means of export and industrialization.  At the same time, readers should also familiar with the ideology advocated by Communist Party of China is “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. It has absorbed several characteristics of Capitalism to become the Social Market Economy we seen.  When we apprehend in detail, it still has a huge meaningful difference to Capitalism, not to mention the adoption of its spirit. Recently, many economists already express the grave concern on China’s attainment of “Lewis Turning Point”. In this bottleneck, cheap labor is hard to sustain China’s economic development. Concurrently, China is dogged by series of chronic problems about inflation, social unrest, unjustified procedure, corruption and pollution.  Ironically, this vast agricultural country once let Macro Polo admired is now facing food problems. They are not worrying about the scarcity of food. Worst still, their supermarket is stuffed with abundant of local stock but the mainlanders perceived them as poison. Fettered by merchant-official collusion and imperfection in judicial system, complainants cannot receive the proper treatments they deserved. At present, tens of thousands regional victims are staying at Beijing to seek chances for appeal. This year is the first year of President Xi’s reign. Instead of reiterating vague and impracticable pledge, people are deeply awaited for an overhaul. Frankly speaking, it is unprecedented to see a country with 1.3 billion populations to step into the industrialization. Mr Xi and his processors are fulfilling a mission impossible task. Nevertheless, people generally conceive mainlander’s philosophy is fabricating one matter to cover another until the third one unearth.  Due to the gravity on international platform, the suffocation or coughing of this dragon will affect every corner of the world. We herein expect Mr. Xi could offer a long-sought for drug to eradicate the chronic problems to sustain the growth. One of the indications to signify the next move on Mr.Xi’s chessboard is his directive on Hong Kong matters. The place we are working and living have countless intangible differences to cities under Communist Party’s purview. If our leaders consider the experiences in Hong Kong noteworthy and quotable in social modernization, degree of compromise could be sensed in dealing with Hong Kong’s opposite voice and dissidents. To the other extreme, protests and oppositions would all be suppressed should the hidden agenda in China is accelerating to assimilate Hong Kong without slight treasure of its capitalist heritage. In this regard, “Occupy the Central” and “Universal referendum” serves not only “Talk of the town” in Bauhinia city but also has a profound implication to human history.

買家消聲賣家匿跡，細看香港樓市新軌跡

政府推出樓市雙辣招後，近期的成交巳委縮到令老行尊都開始惶恐不安。坦言，在人為政策扭曲的情況下，真的不知要多久才可渡過冰河時期。但在眾多重招和銀行借款限制之下，不只整死抄家，連真正用家都無法行動。但有別於九七時十多厘的高原環境，現時環球利息之低，最起碼要多加兩三厘，大家才有箝緊褲頭的感覺。況且，過去十多年，金管局在借貸審核和中央紀錄上巳費盡心思，根本難有九七前月薪一萬供樓九千的勇猛現象。再加上，香港樓市並非在蟹貨區，亦難有以往因一兩件小事便骨牌下滑的危機。所以，政府表面善意調控樓市，最終的結果可能只是無成交式在高原牛皮，但小市民置業的夢想仍然遙遠。現今，特區政府民望巳跌破谷底。由特首選舉以至眾多措施，「CY陣營」都洗滌不去執行中央意思的指斥。如香港市民在這種時勢下仍捉錯用神，冀望樓市政策會快雨過天晴，可能只是痴心妄想。

港退中進

從現時樓市的境況和政策作買賣雙方正反思量，任何人皆知，基本上是對「買方」較為有利的。但一般人和公司都難做按揭的前提下，「買方」這詞巳不是泛指一般市民和小商家，而僅指有雄厚資金的大型機構。另一買賣雙方奕棋的商業學問是，如果「買家」倍於「賣家」，成交價多會以「賣方」有利，反之亦言。因而，現時政府造就的情況，儼如罷黜買家，把禾雀亂飛的市塲，收縮到指定買家和賣家一對一對峙的境況。潮起潮落，時代轉變，定有人遲官歸故里, 有人漏夜趕科場。八九十年代，香港華資漸次取代英資，成為地產市塲的主角。一瞬間，回歸巳十六週年，香港在各界別都隠感在大陸化。相對地，地產舞台的主角，亦多少輪到大陸背景的演員擔綱演出，至於是用什麼方法和模式作交棒，由於大陸和香港分屬於兩套不同社會體系和法制的地區，有別於八十年代，劇本和對白可能會完全不同。按形勢，現時華置和超人的公司，仍有一大堆法律訴訟要處理，祈求撤走辣招的朋友和業界，可能要待這些官司有眉目，或甚至看到「四大家族出售所有商塲給愛國基金」的報導，才會有放寬的可能。

明修棧道暗渡陳倉

另一值得香港人思索的問題是立法局下月復會後，政府定會把新界發展如期提案。群眾的反應，自然盯着發展局要員們的醜聞窮追不捨。他們的所作所為，巳有多份報章臚列過，在此不贅。但大家有否注意到，香港重要官員的任命，全經中央批准。而「屯地波」和麥局長交义租樓一事，以複雜性而言，根本就顯而易見，但他們都能通過背景審查。心水清的朋友亦可會反問，何解要讓自身問題多多的人，來領導對香港房屋有深遠影響的部門。他們出席任何塲合，定必變成粗口互罵的塲面，根本無法探討論香港房屋問題。有見及此，香港人必須對一國兩制有更深的理解。國家利益，並不等同香港人利益。香港人需視這班領導人為砒霜，以國家戰略國度，他們却是熊掌。那麼，他們可扮演什麼角色，可使中央政府萬般欣賞，難道他們是另一個張居正，想出香港新一條鞭法，並讓全中國參考?以筆者角度，他們的醜聞和人品，正是攫取中央歡心的地方。當大家未來數年都把重點放在喊打官員、被分散注意力下，一水之隔的前海巳高速發展，今年巳賣了兩幅土地。反之，香港人仍在注目高官醜聞，正反兩方互罵數年後，大家如夢初醒才驚覺，另一個由中國全權主管的香港巳完峻。那時，港人的聲音和意見更加不稍一顧。隨後，大型機構和經濟活動帶領人流遷入該區，自會平衡香港的居住問題。

因而，現屆政府的底蘊是真的有心調控和健康化樓市，或是又用戲法來聲東擊西，達到某些企圖，各人應用多角度作深入分析、自我判斷。

5kg 羽毛 vs 5 kg金屬 邊樣重些? ; 5kg 泰國米 vs 5 kg印度米 邊隻飽D?

The HKSAR establishment day -The glorious day or The judgment day? ( published in A-Desiflava Magazine July 2013)

Imagined a foreign friend asks you what Hong Kong’s core business is, what is your answer? Hong Kong had been a tiny fishing village for several centuries prior to the World War II. Its role was insignificant in feudalist dynasties. Opium war staged by the Britain in 1842 caused the cessation of Hong Kong Island.  Kowloon Peninsula and New Territories were further grabbed by the Britain in the clauses of Beijing Treaty in 1862. Initial ruling by the Britain brought little material changes to this village until the World War II.  Wars led to a large number of refugees fled to Hong Kong to look for shelters.  Due to the Embargo imposed on Mainland China in Korean War, Hong Kong got the benefit of ruling under the British government still had transformed into an entrepot and textile centre in contrast.  In the 80s and 90s, the financial market and property market subsequently flourished, the lions in HSBC Headquarters have invisibly become Hong Kong’s symbol from thereafter. 

For people like me, who is Hong Kong born and bred, is able use this thorough analysis to answer you.  What the answer would be if it come out from a guy living in Hong Kong less than 5 years whereas his observation is shorter than mine, he may wrongly develop an illusion that smuggling and protesting is substantively Hong Kong’s essential production line. In reality, it is not a joke; Mainlander queuing at retails and cross-border-stations are obvious.  Internally, Hong Kong protestors’ relation with the Police is on the aggravated trend.  The scale and occurrence grows irrevocably.  This month’s attention is on the 16th anniversary of the establishment of HK SAR. Besides the glory and proud we satisfied with the departure from colonial status, is it simple to use naïve stance to foresee tomorrow must be better in economic context? We herein discuss.

Small Medium Enterprise’s obstacles expanding

There is an English idiom - “As a man sows, so shall he reap”.  Is it always true? I met with an experienced businessman in a casual occasion and he adapted this sentence to narrate Hong Kong’s business situation, particularly comparing with the ecology between the British time and the SAR time.  His description is funny-“Within the same hectare of farmland, 1 ox yielded 10 baskets of rice when we saluted to the Queen. Now, 10 oxen fail to yield 1 basket of rice even you blame it in Putonghua. Without positive goal to pursue, we reverse backlash against the government and cannot but become the protestor”. Put asides his emotional expression, you see the contrast in the ease of money earning between the two eras.  Also, many entrepreneurs told me that “I am the boss in the morning but I sleep on the floor in the evening (live in small cage unit)”.  Do you sense how severe the SME is and how harsh to materialize the dream to become a businessman today?  It is because nearly all profit-assured businesses in Hong Kong are highly controlled under the large conglomerates. They had gained fame and fortune in the Embargo and their dominations and influences are deep-rooted in this soil for several generations already.  They concentrated on property developing and seize this indispensible industry in Hong Kong as the cornerstone to expand. They have stable rental income as the pillars and keep searching opportunity to extend into peripheral areas, such as transportation, utilities, telecommunication and grocery. New comers are sidelined.  After several decades, the oligopoly in Hong Kong has been forged.  So, SMEs have no choice but can only venture into the difficult and fierce competition frontiers.  One indicator to judge and apprehend the degree of concentration and domination of Hong Kong’s business sector is foreign companies’ presence. Surprisingly, all large property developers are Hong Kong based. No foreign company managed to step into this turf.  Nevertheless, you will have an otherwise finding in foods and retailers which diversity of company appears.  Isn’t it a strange phenomenon?    

Sky-high property price and population composition changes

Another source of grievance is that the property price has skyrocketed to an extremely high level.  Even the continuous influxes of tourist seemingly boost the prosperity. Is everyone in Hong Kong enjoying the benefit equally? Had the government not introduced the severe stamp duties as speculation penalty, this year’s property could have continued the peak-searching under the pegged exchange environment. The property price and rental surge is out of synchronization with Hong Kong people’s salary adjustment.  As a result, with and without already inherently possesses a diverse comment to the current situation and government.  Worst still, the adaptations to SAR varies among each other.  Aren’t those posses black hair and yellow skin are all Chinese or Dragon’s offspring in nick? How come some are hostile to the other under SAR’s ruling?  In fact, Hongkongers had little interaction with the Mainlanders before the handover.  Two kinds of territorial separated people were indeed having been raised in two distinguished cultural environment and respiration system. The moment when Royal yacht Britannia which carried the last governor Chris Patten sailed in 1997, mammals and amphibians though possessed distinctive life before have to live together as the destiny. The One-Way Ticket scheme allows 150 new arrivals daily from Mainland but HKSAR Government has neither been vested with power to propose eligibility nor possesses any procedure to offer comment to decline. In 2001, Court of Final Appeal decided that Chinese citizens born in Hong Kong enjoyed the right of abode regardless of the Hong Kong immigration status of their parents.  HongKongers are both thankful and repugnant to this outcome because it creates a new industry that Mainland women start to swamp Hong Kong hospitals.  Coupled with businessman, short term family visit, expatriates and commuters, you can conceive Hong Kong is a tiny place but accommodates people with different originality and thinking. If the HKSAR Government fails to balance the need among stakeholders to gear toward cohesion, conflict sooner or later surfaces. Last but not the least, the free and independent travel policy introduced in 2005 injected tens of thousands of unfamiliar faces to Causeway Bay and TST. At the outset, indigenous HongKongers are friendly to their sightseeing and feel grateful to their assistance to rescue Hong Kong‘s poor economy after the SARs disasters. As time passed by, their behavior, conduct, value and political blind loyalty outweighed the initial delight.  Extremists even present the signal they are intruders, please return to Mainland. 

Unharmonious political and economical sentiment

The gunpowder ignites from Legislative Councilor’s debate room sometimes originated from the above difference and it spreads to public area as an aftermath. The reverberations diffuse to community, organization and internet forum. Hard to reach consent and hard to compromise is an undeniable fact, some Councilors have started to filibuster to achieve their purpose in recent years. Every Hong Kong taxpayer is burdening the to-lings and fro-lings in the irrelevant debate, you may wish to know that each Legislative Council is remunerating at HK$84 490 per month! We need a calm sentiment to settle the chronic problem but without a social cohesion is hard to ask people to discuss in calm- It is a vicious circle.

Another blow to the laissez-faire, the all along advocated policy in British era, is the introduction of Statutory Minimum Wage in 2011.  After it put into practice, some labor sectors suddenly become a protected class. Its distortion to Hong Kong ecology is immense.  It has started off a tide of job changeover whereas catering industries cannot but to raise salary to hunt for dish washers. Even the boss do so, applicants are still very few because they set security guards as their first priority with the simple reason that their wage is safeguarded by the mechanism. The above paragraph is just a snapshot of the chaotic phenomenon in Hong Kong and you could learn the rationale why my friend delivers this statement. Furthermore, I would like to stress the important of “One country two system” in business angle rather than political consideration.  Business counts on complementary positions among the parties involved. If I were a doctor and you were a doctor, no business could generate because singularity in strength and knowledge brings no trading opportunity.  If I was a doctor and you were a restaurant operator, business may occur. In macro point of view, Hong Kong used to be Western countries’ sourcing and merchandising agent to utilize Mainland China’s productivity. After the handover, China rapidly modernizes and opens. Internet redefines the communication protocol and the world turns flat to become borderless. If Hong Kong is walking on the curve to integrate into Mainland in all walks of life, will there be any complementary positions among HongKongers, Mainlanders and the rest of the world in international cooperation?  Manufacturing and trading in Hong Kong had already been shrunk to a negligible cake.  Now, the launch of mentioned stamp duties in property sector not only halts speculation but also destroy Hong Kong’s meal ticket. Back to square one, this month deserves to celebrate if only because we esteem our nation casts off the humiliated history and unfair treaty.  In practical angle, Hong Kong’s uniqueness and comparative advantages are not as strong as it used to be but the society complication is no less than the colonial time. If you regard Hong Kong as a long term place to live, to do business or to retire, use this summer holiday to deliberate what and how our future should be!  In coming issues, we find due course to further discuss.

 

從會展揭露香港租金高企之迷 (轉載至微型企業商會會刋2013年三月)

面對樓市瘋狂的狀況，香港政府終由上屆時的「麻木不仁」，轉至現時非「積極面對」不可。小學生都知，現況是由於供求缺口甚大所致。但到底有多大呢?按政府和日常報章論點，一般由停建公共房屋、癈除定期賣地改為勾地制度後，每年平均有一萬個缺口為估算基礎。十年下來，約欠十萬個單位缺口，並以此對焦作為解決問題的規模。但，是否以這個waiting list logic便可大概sketch出個問題餅的大小呢?筆者以實体經濟看到情況可以跟大家分享，這估算跟實際需要的落差跟可能頗大。

未計入環球化因素估算缺口

而失算的差額是什麼呢?坦言，官員和學者多坐冷氣房，較少像我們般為揾食四處跑。大家商界朋友都應留意到，現時灣仔、澳門和廣州，差不多每一兩個星期便有不同topic的貿易會。按旅發局公佈的數字(資料來源http://www.gov.hk/tc/about/abouthk/factsheets/docs/tourism.pdf)，近年旅港人次長期處於三、四千萬人一年。走水貨和酒店供不應救巳不是新聞，除此之外，大家有否關注到，到底有多少旅客屬business development的人流呢?這無疑很難界分?但亦不要小看這對香港的衝擊，因為只要是1%，巳是30萬人，成一個油尖區咁多，5%是一百五十萬人，成個香港島咁多人!如他們憧憬在港或亞洲的生意前景，可能以旅客性質，在港出入滯留生根數年亦說不定。所以，是否單從看港人需要便可解決問題實是一絲懸念。隨着商業社會越來越環球化，流動人口只會越來越多。在歐美都墮入債務危機後，令原本在該地的各大机構或她們被裁的員工都轉移到亞洲揾机會。

來自五湖四海的需求

近年資訊科技領導世界經濟發展，這風氣亦傳到香港。筆者近月參加过數個 IT forum 和business startup分享會，講者有很多是來自俄羅斯或丹麥等這些冷門地區，有些東歐國家可能大家都未聽过。這巳有別於殖民地時代，那時鬼佬不是來自英國、美國定必是澳洲加拿大。無論如何，將來勢有越來越多來自五湖四海的entrepreneur 或生意人。他們也跟本地人一樣，有住屋、office或倉庫的需求。如我們政府處理問題的觸角未能跟上環球化時代，到中國經濟稍作好轉，又再招引來更多世界各地人士來港尋找商机。所以，就算政府推出諸多辣招遏抑樓價兼利息在未來有所上升，但實際上，我觀察現時對各類型居住和辦公室需求甚殷，業主加租無情講。這亦包括我的IT鬼佬朋友，也被迫由中區一個劏房搬到灣仔區較平的。

各朋友可有心理準備，租金可能仍會長期高居不下。但各行各業，則會有不同國家的人士進塲，競爭更環球化、更激烈。

團購網站是理想Business Startup嗎?( 轉載至微型企業商會會刋2012年十二月號)

近年團購網站在世界各處遍地開花，而團購亦是現時市民必會留意的事情，推至商業範疇，團購或許是眾多創業者曾考慮的計畫之一。數年前Groupon强勢在美國出現時，筆者巳獲朋友邀請合資在香港做一個類似的團購網站。他在大IT公司任職經理，自問團隊內的技術問題巳可解決。他做事也算是認真，把租金、電腦設備和宣傳等預算鉅細無遺地臚列在計劃書內。整體而言，投資金額尚可，算是一般打工仔可負擔之譜。但經過筆者作數月研究，我仍是推却這合作計畫。而我推却的原因是跟數字和技術無關的!

有違做生意的原始信念

我秉承做生意人的原始信念，當你第一天做生意時或許要「cold call」 和「洗樓」找新面孔作推銷。但當你一兩年後，「翻單」及 「推薦」應佔生意越來越多的比重，有口皆碑地做下去。常人也知，開發一個新客戶的開支和難度是倍於「自動波」的舊客 和 referral。而生意模式的成功，在於在自身定位和客戶供應商三者之間產生 win-win-win 情況。回看團購，很多食店和零售店在參加過團購後都「耍手擰頭」，因為在虧損同時未能在將來生意產生效果。而顧客亦多對食店和零售店無歸屬感，不會特別幫襯，只會等團購時幫襯。在「你有張良計，我有過牆梯」的情況下，食店和零售店又變通選用蚊型牛排和特別條文應對。所以，在團購模式運行只是幾年後，消委會巳忙得不可開交。在欠缺良性循環的現況，各團購公司唯有加強Sales Force 的搶灘能力。但在欠缺上述win-win-win情況下，各團購公司越增强Sales Force，則表示越多人爭一個越來越難爭的餅。筆者有一位在蘭桂坊經營餐廳的朋友這月巳收到一堆團購名片，在Sale走後，他一張都未翻看過。

達致規模効益的懸念

在成本控制方面，當生意越來越多的同時，有否產生規模効益呢?按今年大陸的團購網都在叫救命你便知道。而筆者走訪過香港一家大型團購網，驚訝地發現位處灣仔旺區佔地數層。她的攝影部、設計部和銷售部等，略說無一百人也有數十人，在這樣重成本和不斷汗流浹背地找參加商戶的性質下，筆者一早知道這生意模式入門門檻低，但要成功是極高難度。而且，它不只是懂得找顧客的錢，更重要的是懂得用名氣找投資者的錢和不斷re-financing捱下去。數年前，筆者坦言些技能並非我能吃的飯，都是做回一元一元賺的生意好了。

業務模式上需優化

偶爾亦聽到朋友說，某些團購公司忽視個人服務，電話不是無人聽便轉到電話錄音。如是者，則那些公司亦未能在認購客戶上投放資源，在整條服務供應鏈上留不到客戶的心，長遠很難有 Customer loyalty。

不過，我們深信香港人材輩出，想必在聆到這些回饋後，定可在技術上和模式上優化，解決這些死結框框。如將來真的有另一隻上市奇蹟，切記讓港人優先認購!